A | 8月25日消息，内存行业如今主要垄断在三星、海力士及美光三巨头手中，唯一可能打破这个局面的只有中国的长鑫科技，Q1市场份额做到了第四。 TOKYO -- Japan's exports climbed 4.3% in September from a year earlier as shipments of vehicles, machinery and electronics rose while imports of oil and gas fell sharply, the government said Thursday.Exports totaled 9.2 trillion yen ($61 billion) in September while imports fell 16.3% from the year before to 10.9 trillion yen ($72 billion), according to provisional customs data released Thursday. That left a positive balance of 62.4 trillion yen ($410 billion), the first monthly trade surplus in three months.September's increase in exports was the biggest gain since March and was stronger than analysts had expected. The figures suggest strong activity in Japan's vital manufacturing sector despite faltering global demand. Economists said the drop in imports was mainly due to base effects from the year before.In the first half of Japan’s fiscal year, from April-September, exports edged up just 1.4% from a year earlier, to a record 50.2 trillion yen ($330 billion) while the trade deficit shrank by three-quarters to 2.7 trillion yen ($18 billion). Trade with the rest of Asia has weakened in the past half-year, with a drop in exports of computer chips and semiconductor making equipment taking a toll on exports to China.“The global electronics slump seems like it is continuing with semiconductor equipment down 14.5%, contributing to a decline in exports to China, the biggest destination of IT products,” ING Economics said in a report. Shipments to the U.S. and Europe rose, mainly thanks to strong sales of autos and auto parts, which jumped nearly 24%. Exports of electrical equipment surged 17% and exports of machinery were up 18%. Japan's imports of oil fell 28% in April-September from a year earlier, while imports of liquefied natural gas sank almost 38% and imports of coal plunged 37%.。 长鑫相比三巨头的劣势有不少，产能提升尤其要面临美国欧洲日本等国家的禁运政策限制，但背靠国产设备也在快速增加产能，三星等公司不可能不担忧长鑫的产能扩张。
B | 逛X的时候发现了一个自称为AI行业分析师的网友发帖，援引了高盛的一篇报告对中国内存公司表示了不看好的观点，说CXMT的产能已经达到了硬性上限，预计今年的产能也只能达到去年底大约24万片/月的规模。 内文比较长，感兴趣的可以看看，他也认为美国封锁半导体设备的政策是有效的，尤其是用于10nm以下的EUV工艺的禁令限制了CXMT增产的能力。 看高盛的研究数据，里面也没有说中国内存公司产能就没法增长的结果，反而是2024到2028年产能还在提升，2028年预估产能差不多是24年的4-5倍，比2025年也要翻倍还多，CAGR复合增长速度是还是显著高于三星等公司的。
C | 这哥们对中国内存行业的看衰不知道哪里来，不过看了他的头像就明白了，这显然是南亚次大陆某个国家出来的高材生，能随便从一个报告中解读出中国内存行业不行的角度也不让人意外了。 不过公平地说，他做出负面的解读也不一定是国籍因素，这哥们说是个AI行业研究分析师，但明显是个炒股的，任职的单位更是炒币为主，他今年6月份才加入X网站，但已经发了1400多条帖子，非常高产。 只不过他发的贴子除了各种噱头之外，主要就是推介他们在炒股炒币上多成功，几乎每个两三条帖子就发一次他们提前发现了某个股票大涨的宣传。
D | 另外这哥们虽然动不动就是看衰中国某个领域的发展，但他显然还是很关注国内产业发展的，发的贴子中不少素材明显是来自国内的研究，这倒是也非常符合那个大陆地区的人的刻板印象。
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