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今晚全球瞩目！美联储“最青睐通胀指标”将出炉 利率剧本会否改写？_我的网站

一 |     According to media reports, the newspaper Beijing Daily published a story on Monday afternoon quoting Cai Qi, the Communist Party of China’s secretary in Beijing and a former mayor of the city.,“In the next five years, Beijing will unremittingly grasp the normalization of epidemic prevention and control,” the story originally quoted Cai as saying, according to the UK Guardian.,Now, the article only says the city will “make unremitting efforts to normalize epidemic prevention and control” to “control quickly and resolutely block the transmission channels of the epidemic.”,It goes on to note the various efforts that must be improved, including a “normalized nucleic acid testing and key screening” process, regularizing cleaning and inspection of public spaces, and controlling entry and exit of the vast city of 21.5 million, which is deeply connected with the surrounding Hebei Province and nearby coastal metropolis of Tianjin.,China’s Economy Got $26 Billion Boost From Gov Buying 11 Billion Covid-19 Tests - Report13 June, 22:01 GMT,China adopted the “Zero Covid” policy in 2021, when the arrival of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, brought an increasingly stubborn new outbreak. However, the principles underlying it - that mass lockdowns, with logistical networks funneling food, supplies and medicine to residents under quarantine while medical workers test the entire population for infection - were forged in early 2020, when China fought off the world’s first outbreak of the virus.,Throughout 2021, the policy was extremely successful, limiting mainland China to just two COVID-19 deaths that year. By comparison, at least 415,000 Americans died of the virus in 2021.,However, it wasn’t until early 2022 that the Omicron variant, even more infectious than Delta and with a penchant for causing asymptomatic cases, really put China’s “Zero Covid” policy to the test. Between the beginning of April and the beginning of June, the Chinese government spent some $26 billion on COVID-19 tests as huge cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xi’an were placed in lockdown for weeks at a time and their tens of millions of residents tested several times in an attempt to track down, isolate and treat all cases of the disease.,40% of Kids Aged 0-3 Suffer From Long COVID, Which Lasts at Least Two Months - Lancet Report23 June, 12:37 GMT,Despite its success at preventing mass death among its 1.4 billion people, the Chinese government has been extensively criticized by the West, which has variously accused them of lying about the extent of the outbreak, terrorizing its population with the lockdowns, and claiming that the policy in unsustainable. When World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus suggested in May that China would be better off if it abandoned “Zero Covid,” Beijing fired back.,“The purpose [of Zero Covid] is solely to protect people’s life and health to the greatest extent possible and underpin sustained, sound and steady economic and social development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at the time. “In China, we have the foundation, the conditions and the capability to achieve dynamic zero-COVID. We have every confidence in winning this hard battle and making greater contributions to the united global response.”,A study published in May by researchers at Shanghai’s Fudan University and at Indiana University in the United States warned that if China’s “Zero Covid” policy were removed and the respiratory virus allowed to spread unimpeded across Chinese society - as has happened in most other countries - it would “generate a tsunami of Covid-19 cases” that would kill at least 1.5 million people.,Just over 5,200 people in China have died of COVID-19 since it appeared in late 2019, while about 6.3 million have died globally, including 1 million in the United States.。    　　北京时间周三（8月26日）晚上20:30，本周最受关注的美国宏观经济数据之一——7月个人消费支出（PCE）报告——将出炉。　　作为美联储“最青睐的通胀指标”，最新的PCE数据将在该央行9月政策会议之前为研判美国经济状况提供关键参考，并成为重新定价美国利率预期的重要催化剂。　　市场预计美国7月PCE物价指数将较6月有所回升，但经济学家表示，更广泛的趋势将指向通胀压力趋于缓和。　　根据FactSet的一致预期，经济学家预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.07%，此前6月环比下降了0.11%；7月PCE同比涨幅预计由6月的3.7%小幅回落至3.6%。　　剔除波动较大的食品、能源价格的核心PCE物价指数，预计环比上涨0.18%，略高于6月的上涨0.13%；同比上涨3.20%，而6月为上涨3.3%。　　值得注意的是，美国经济分析局将于9月发布对PCE报告的计算方法变更，以更准确地捕捉计算机硬件、股票投资组合管理和法律服务领域的价格动态。

二 | 这意味着，7月PCE数据后续或将面临修正。　　此前6月美国PCE数据曾出现2020年以来首次环比负增长，同比升幅也从前月的4.1%收窄至3.7%。通胀降温主要源于美伊达成临时停火协议后油价的走低。

三 | 　　ClearBridge 投资高级投资策略分析师Josh Jamner表示：“通胀预期整体相当稳定。过去几个月出现的通胀抬升预计只是短期现象。”　　为何7月核心PCE预计仍将处于高位？　　法国外贸银行（Natixis）美国首席经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，虽然目前 “已不再有证据表明关税正在影响通胀”，但仍有几个细分品类继续给核心通胀带来压力。主要来看，与人工智能与数据中心大规模建设相关的计算机软硬件价格上行压力仍在持续显现。　　他预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.14%，同比涨幅维持在3.70%。核心PCE将环比上涨0.20%，同比涨幅同样维持在3.3%。

四 | 　　瑞银经济学家表示，近几个月来，AI在通胀篮子中的存在一直在缓慢爬升，但尚不足以搅乱整体通胀趋势。随着AI在各行业的采用扩大，软件和IT成本正在上升，并带动计算机硬件等核心耐用品的成本走高。　　该行经济学家预计，美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.16%，同比上涨3.60%；核心PCE将环比上涨0.25%，同比上涨3.30%。　　高盛高级经济学家David Mericle预计，随着金融市场施加上行压力，核心PCE将在7月上涨，因为股价走高预计将推高投资组合管理费。这可能对月度涨幅贡献0.11个百分点。总体而言，Mericle预计，核心PCE 7月将环比上涨0.20%，同比上涨3.24%。　　美联储9月料按兵不动　　ClearBridge的Jamner预计，美联储9月将按兵不动。更多经济数据将在9月会议前陆续公布，如8月CPI和就业报告。　　“目前来看，美联储目前按兵不动的可能性比其他任何选项都更大，但距离会议仍有一段时间，局势仍存在变数。　　Natixis的Hodge也倾向于认为美联储9月将维持利率不变，但与此同时，他认为，鉴于近期的经济数据，市场对加息的预期是合理的。　　“如果PCE数据令人意外（即通胀超预期），且并非因为某种统计异常，那么9月加息的可能性就会提升。

五 | 但我并不认为会出现这种情况，预计数据整体将相当温和。”他表示。

六 | 　　据CME“美联储观察”，目前美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，加息25个基点的概率为39.6%。　　虽然大多数市场参与者预计美联储9月将按兵不动，但这一前景可能随着更多通胀和就业数据的出炉而发生改变。　　总体来看，市场参与者仍在等待更多信号，以判断美国经济基本面，以及美联储今年是否会选择加息。

七 | 　　本周，市场还将密切关注美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲，以寻找其通胀立场线索。

八 | （文章来源：财联社）。

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