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Reliance on Taiwan Chipmaker Puts US Economy at Risk Amid China Tensions_我的网站

一 |     Tensions between China and Taiwan boiled over last week after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ignored Beijing’s warnings and visited Taipei. Beijing reacted by launching large-scale military exercises, which disrupted global supply chains, as the foreign ministry warned that Taiwan’s reunification with China was historically inevitable.,The US does not officially recognize Taiwan’s independence, and supposedly embraces a "One China" policy, but Washington’s diplomatic relations and arms sales to the island have been condemned by Beijing for years. US lawmakers, adding fuel to the fire ignited by Pelosi, have been working on legislation that would provide Taiwan with $4.5 billion in security aid in addition to granting the island non-NATO ally status.,Four days before Pelosi’s trip, Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a phone call warned President Joe Biden that the US was "playing with fire," and now was not the time for a full-blown crisis over Taiwan.,In light of the current over-reliance on Taiwan, many companies within several sectors of the US economy would likely agree with Xi.,In a bid to reduce dependence on the island, the US government will be investing billions on projects to develop domestic semiconductor capabilities. However, former senior US diplomat Chas Freeman believes China may be better positioned in the long run to penetrate this highly-concentrated market in the race for microchip self-sufficiency.,"The United States still has the capacity and resources to out-compete China but it still has not done so," Freeman, who was President Richard Nixon’s translator during his 1972 visit to Beijing, told Sputnik. "On the contrary, 19 of the world’s 20th fastest growing semiconductor companies are now in mainland China and none are in the United States.",US Vulnerabilities Run Abroad and Deep,Last year, the US economy lost $240 billion due to the global microchip shortage, and a war over Taiwan would be even more devastating for the United States due to its dependence on one single supplier: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest chip foundry.,TSMC accounted for more than half of the $100 billion semiconductor manufacturing market in 2021, and makes more than 90% of the world’s most advanced microchips, according to the Capital Economics research group. And the company’s market share is only likely to expand. TSMC executives in a July earnings call projected 30% growth this year, which would put total annual revenue well over $70 billion.,American tech giants like Apple, Intel, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, AMD, and Broadcom, all rely on TSMC, while the US government depends on the Taiwanese supplier for some of the most critical and complex systems.,The Energy Department’s Argonne National Laboratory, a byproduct of the Manhattan project, for example, is building a national security supercomputer using TSMC because Intel was forced to delay production.,US-China Tensions Over TaiwanPelosi Meets Chair of World’s Largest Chipmaker in Taiwan Amid Increasing US-Chinese Tensions3 August, 11:41 GMT,Moreover, TSMC makes semiconductors for high-end weapons systems and a wide range of military-grade devices, a major factor in the US pressuring TSMC to move production to America’s shores, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a June report.,The Biden administration in a supply chain review last summer even conceded that the United States is too heavily dependent on TSMC for producing America’s leading-edge semiconductors - a reality that led to the recently-passed CHIPS Act, signed by Biden on Monday, which provides more than $52 billion in subsidies for domestic manufacturers.,In July, former director of cybersecurity for the White House National Security Council, Zach Nunn, described the semiconductor shortage and lack of capacity as a "direct threat to America’s economy and national security.",Although Biden failed to prevent Pelosi's visit, he is apparently well aware of America’s vulnerabilities. The president stopped short of opposing the House Speaker publicly, but behind the scenes senior White House officials were dispatched to dissuade Pelosi from going, Bloomberg reported, and to halt the new bill that would provide billions in military aid to Taiwan.,Chip Race With China,Some experts have suggested China has shown restraint in punishing Taiwan economically because it could backfire. TSMC Chairman Mark Liu, who met Pelosi during her visit, told CNN Beijing will "think twice" about invading because China’s most advanced systems rely on his firm’s semiconductors. An invasion, Liu added, would render his company "not operable.",Part of the reason TSMC has an advantage is a near monopoly on the skill set needed to develop certain advanced microchips. This has been exacerbated by a global high-tech talent shortage amid soaring demand for software skills needed to program and integrate chips into fast-growing markets such as electric vehicles and robotics, according to a 2022 Deloitte industry outlook.,The US Chips Act allocates funding to develop these types of skills while Beijing has focused on enhancing such capabilities as part of the $1.4 trillion high tech investment plan it unveiled in 2020.,China Slams US Attempt to Ban Dutch Sales of Chipmaking Equipment6 July, 14:23 GMT,Although China today accounts for only 15% of global manufacturing in semiconductors, its chip companies are rapidly growing. Meanwhile, the US share of the market has dropped from 37% to 12%.,Freeman, who chairs an international business development firm, said Beijing’s aspirations go beyond simply developing manufacturing capabilities.,"The US still leads in chip design but China is also closing that gap rapidly and is already only a year or two behind us," Freeman said.,China, which currently produces one-third of global manufacturing, Freeman added, has the talent and skills to eventually take the lead in many technology and science-related sectors.,Freeman pointed out that Chinese universities produce four times as many students as the United States in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) - and the gap is widening.,"Many examples from history refute the complacent American assumption that only private companies in liberal democracies with free speech on political matters can be inventive," Freeman said. "History proves that myth is wrong. China is proving it is wrong again today."。    本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开：          1、中美科技板块传染式下跌，短期会扭转吗？          2、市场情绪"不安全感"增加，哪些方向受益？                    如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。                   新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。

二 |                    1、中美科技板块传染式下跌，短期会扭转吗？          上周五，国内市场出现向下的大幅震荡，尤以科技板块跌幅令市场胆战心惊；中国香港市场亦未能幸免。我们先梳理诱因，再研判下周能否企稳。                   首先，国内科技板块近期疲弱的核心原因是：进入10月后，科技板块估值肉眼可见地偏高，需要向下回踩以消化泡沫；恰逢四季度调仓窗口，机构资金集中换仓，成为市场波动的重要来源。

三 |                    其次，科技板块具有特殊性——中美市场联动极强。10月以来，这种联动显著加大：美股科技板块明显回调，其深层原因在于，尽管中美在口头及政策层面针锋相对，但两国科技产业在看不见的地方深度绑定，为联动奠定基础。                   美国本轮新兴产业（如人工智能）在上游大模型与高端芯片领域具备创新优势；中国AI产业则错位竞争，在市场开拓、规模化生产及赋能实体经济方面优势无可比拟。双方产业深度互补：中国相关产业的估值天花板需靠美国龙头公司的新产品或技术突破来打开；而估值能否兑现、泡沫会否破裂，又取决于中国产业能否在实际商业场景中把钱赚回、形成现金流闭环。

四 | 因此，二级市场几乎零时差联动——上周五美股云服务数据中心龙头甲骨文暴跌8%，对A股科技板块形成直接压力。

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