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Why Ethiopia’s Massive Nile Dam Project Has Spilled Over Into Regional Tensions_我的网站

A |     Under construction since 2011, the GERD project is one of the largest public infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, and will be the biggest hydroelectric power plant on the African continent once finished next year.,The third phase of the filling of a massive reservoir, capable of holding up to 74 billion cubic meters of water, was completed this week, with two of the dam’s planned 16 turbines now operational. When construction is finished, the dam will be capable of generating some 6,000 megawatts of power – more than double the average output of a WER-1000 nuclear reactor.,AfricaWATCH Water Pour Over Spillway on Ethiopia’s GERD Hydroelectric Dam After Finishing Third FillingYesterday, 22:33 GMT,In a ceremony inaugurating the project on Friday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed that the dam was Ethiopia’s “gift,” and that it was “Ethiopia’s responsibility to use it” together with the other two Nile Basin countries - Egypt and Sudan.,“PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River [Ethiopia’s term for the Blue Nile, one of the two major tributaries of the Nile] takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve,” the prime minister’s office tweeted following the ceremony.,PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve. He also congratulated all Africans on this milestone. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/Be9WtrHczO— Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) August 12, 2022,Just Deserts,The question of which country “deserves” what has been the subject of considerable consternation and debate between the three nations, as has the dam’s potential environmental impact, with Cairo and Khartoum fearing the filling of the 145 meter tall, 1.8 km long dam could threaten the region with droughts and floods. Last month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that Cairo would defend its interests using “all means available” at its disposal, and called on the United Nations Security Council to negotiate a legally binding agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on regulating the dam’s operation. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi earlier called the GERD dispute a “red line” security issue.,Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegenu dismissed these concerns, telling Sputnik last month that Egypt and Sudan were trying to “internationalize and politicize the dam to solve their internal affairs” and assuring that the dam “has no significant harm” for the downstream nations.,WorldEgypt, Sudan Politicising Renaissance Dam Construction, Ethiopian Diplomat Says27 July 2021, 08:23 GMT,Nile River: Giver of Life,Stretching some 6,695 km and covering over 3.3 million square km, the Nile is the longest river in the world, and has played a significant role in regional civilizational development going back to the Ancient Egyptians owing to the rich soil perfect for agriculture created by its annual flooding, and its use as a tool for regional river navigation. Ethiopia’s Blue Nile tributary accounts for a whopping 85 percent of the Nile’s total waters.,Egypt, which receives almost no rainfall, relies on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its freshwater, with eastern Sudan similarly dependent on the river for its economic wellbeing and water and food security.,Legacy of Colonial Meddling,Part of the difficulty of regulating the dispute over the Nile is the lack of a regional agreement regulating the waters’ flow. Addis Ababa is not a party to the 1959 bilateral treaty between Egypt and Sudan dividing the Nile’s waters.,A separate 1929 Nile Waters Treaty between Britain and its then-puppet state of Egypt, plus the territories of what are now Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan provided Cairo the right to veto infrastructure projects up the Nile if they threatened to impact the country’s interests. However, that treaty similarly didn’t apply to Ethiopia, which managed to survive as the only independent nation in Africa after the European imperialist scramble for the continent in the 19th century, and which was never consulted on the agreement’s terms.,Russia’s Position,As a strategic partner of both Ethiopia and Egypt, Russia has sought to assure the dam dispute’s peaceful and mutually amenable resolution, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in 2021 that Moscow would be ready to provide technical assistance for any negotiations on the matter. Russia also supports the use of the African Union platform to resolve the crisis.,Also last year, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia called on the three countries to stick to the terms of the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the GERD, which urged consensus in reaching an agreement on guidelines for the dam’s filling and operation, and committing Ethiopia to avoid steps which could harm its downstream neighbors. “At the same time, we note legitimate concerns of Egypt and Sudan over the possible negative impact that unconstrained functioning of the dam may produce on the populations of those countries in drought prone years,” he said.,The 2015 agreement and efforts at the African Union and UN levels mean that a baseline for a breakthrough and compromise exists. However, amid regional and global concerns about food and water security, and the threats posed by increasingly prevalent climate disasters and extreme weather events, the GERD dispute comes during a period of heightened regional and global tensions.,In 2021, Africa and Middle East intelligence analysis group Pangea-Risk warned that an all-out water war between Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, or their proxies was becoming increasingly probable in the face of dwindling options for a mediated solution.。    　　由于海湾冲突导致供应紧张，印度对俄罗斯石油的采购量达到历史最高水平，使印度更难摆脱对俄罗斯的石油依赖。

B | 　　据贸易咨询公司Kpler首席分析师Sumit Ritolia表示，6月和7月期间，印度每天进口超过260万桶俄罗斯石油，占印度原油进口总量的一半以上，较2月份每日100万桶的低点成倍上涨。　　去年，印度因美国总统特朗普的指责而在对俄罗斯石油的进口上稍加克制。然而，随着美伊之间和平协议始终未能达成，霍尔木兹海峡的石油出口问题正促使印度重新转向俄罗斯寻求石油供应。　　为缓解海湾危机带来的影响，特朗普已批准豁免规定，允许其购买俄罗斯石油。　　依赖进口　　目前印度超过90%的原油和天然气需求依赖进口，海湾地区持续六个月的冲突也暴露了这个国家在能源安全方面的脆弱性。

C | 　　本月，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在独立日讲话中将能源安全称为“当务之急”，并强调“我们必须全力支持替代能源”。　　根据印度政府下属智库Niti Aayo的数据，化石燃料仍是该国能源供应的关键，其中煤炭占比近60%，石油占28%，而核燃料仅占1.6%。　　转型需要时间　　尽管印度已推出一系列举措以实现能源结构多元化，包括向私营企业开放核能领域，并要求国内炼油厂提高烹饪用气产量，但这一转型需要时间。　　新德里智库CEEW工业可持续发展团队负责人Hemant Mallya指出，“你不能一夜之间改变整个体系。”　　Mallya在6月的一份报告中就曾指出，在煤炭、石油和天然气领域，印度面临因进口依赖、供应商集中、储存能力有限、基础设施瓶颈以及直接暴露于全球价格波动而叠加的多重风险，这些压力“同时影响着家庭、工业、政府财政和通货膨胀”。

D | 　　莫迪总理在国情咨文中提到“促进能源高效利用”，并表示在其12年执政期间，获得管道天然气供应的城市数量从70个增加到700个，惠及1750万户家庭。　　然而，这与超过3.3亿户依赖液化石油气（LPG）作为主要烹饪燃料的家庭仍形成鲜明对比。战争爆发后不久，印度炼油厂将液化石油气产量从此前约3.6万吨/天提升至每日超过5万吨。　　积累储备　　作为其能源安全的长期思考的一部分，印度还更加专注于储备的积累。

E | 政府本月告诉立法者，该国战略储备中可储存533万吨石油，并可储存相当于74天进口量的原油和石油产品。

F | 它还在探索将部分储备存放在阿联酋等选项。　　能源经济与金融分析研究所南亚区主任Vibhuti Garg指出，“虽然印度拥有战略石油储备，但印度并未维持液化石油气或液化天然气储备那么长时间，恐慌更多源于液化石油气消费。”　　贸易咨询公司Kpler的Ritolia表示，伊朗战争“凸显了印度眼前的挑战，既是多元化原油供应和运输路线，也在于彻底远离石油”。　　但他也补充道，尽管推动多元化，“鉴于印度的经济和需求增长，石油很可能长期仍是能源结构中的重要组成部分，即使其份额逐渐变化。”（文章来源：财联社）。

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